– Wikipedia. It could cause horizontal movement of up to eight metres. "What we're interested in is, how do variations in the likely characteristics of the earthquake affect ground shaking at different locations in the country?". New research out today reveals that the Alpine Fault - a strike-slip fault running almost the entire length of the South Island - is surprisingly "well-behaved" in its regularity. It last ruptured in 1717 and there is a big earthquake, on average, about every 300 years, but the times vary so there is thought to be about a 30% risk of the next ‘Big One’ in the next fifty years. NASA Finds Keyhole-shaped Structure on Mars Too Difficult to Explain! The alpine fault earthquake will alter tectonic stress distribution, and other faultlines may rupture in the days or years following it. Post was not sent - check your email addresses! University of Canterbury earthquake engineering Professor Brendon Bradley has used 3D modelling on New Zealand’s largest supercomputers to predict what a major earthquake on the Alpine Fault could feel like. "When the Alpine Fault next ruptures, it will produce seismic waves that propagate out in all directions," Townend said. a smaller group of scientists drilled two boreholes to about 150m into the fault, also near Whataroa, in early 2011. He hoped public pressure on the Government would result in action. "Much of what we record with seismometers is noise generated by ocean waves," he said. The Alpine Fault, which runs about 600km up the western side of the South Island between Milford Sound and Marlborough, poses one of the biggest natural threats to New Zealand - especially the West Coast, Canterbury and Otago. "This enables us to compute realistic ground-shaking in population centres and at other vulnerable locations in response to many more earthquake rupture scenarios than can be practicably studied using conventional approaches," Townend said. The Alpine Fault is expected to rupture within 50 years, a one-in-500 year event that will produce a devastating earthquake of a magnitude 8 or more. "The ground shaking we feel in different parts of the country during an earthquake is controlled by the size of the earthquake and aspects of how the fault is slipping but also by the geological structure the seismic waves encounter as they propagate over long distances and by the local geology right beneath our feet. When most people think of the “Big One,” they often think about an earthquake caused by the San Andreas Fault. The new study is being supported with a $960,000 grant from the Marsden Fund. He stressed the importance of being prepared, as main roading routes between Canterbury and the West Coast could be cut off. – Toilet paper and large rubbish bags for your emergency toilet. AND BE SURE TO JOIN OUR FORUM TOO! Devastated friends try to piece together chopper tragedy that killed couple, Desert Rd murder case: 'Naive' only child helped dispose of man's body, Multiple people trapped after car and truck crash, Seven fire trucks battled house fire in Pakipaki, near Hastings, Watchdog warns Noel Leeming over fast delivery promises. Townend said detailed geological and geophysical studies of the Alpine Fault over the past decade - and the Canterbury and Kaikōura quakes themselves - had done much to fill in knowledge gaps about potential Alpine Fault scenarios. UC PhD graduate Tom Robinson investigated what would happen in a magnitude 8.0 event on the Alpine Fault, which has about a one-in-three to one-in-four chance of occurring in the next 50 years. It would also be no particular surprise if it didn’t happen for another 50 years; unlike we impatient humans, a fault would hardly know the difference. Towns and cities throughout the South Island will feel its tremendous power, with those on the West Coast taking most of its brunt. – Food and water for at least three days. "Given what we know from geological studies of the Alpine Fault, we're anticipating a major magnitude 8.0-plus earthquake, rupturing 500km of the crust, so the shaking will be felt throughout the South Island, but the intensity and duration will ultimately depend on what happens on the fault.". WE ENCOURAGE YOU TO REGISTER, LET'S BUILD A GREAT COMMUNITY TOGETHER Civil Defence recommends preparing essential emergency items, including: – Torch with spare batteries or a self-charging torch. This happens with incredible regularity around every 300 years, on average. A simulation shows the widespread damage that could occur if the South Island’s Alpine Fault ruptures. "By analysing these rupture scenarios mathematically, you can calculate the ground shaking in different places – but you can realistically only do that for a limited range of scenarios because simulating the propagation of seismic waves through complex geological structures is a very large computational task.". Video simulations demonstrate widespread destruction across the South Island if … The next Alpine Fault earthquake would likely also be a long-duration event – unzipping the crust for as much as three minutes - because of the sheer length of the fault. It forms a transform boundary between the Pacific Plate and the Indo-Australian Plate. "But we haven't yet witnessed a rupture of this fault ourselves, so our understanding of what ground motions it will produce is based on hypotheses about how much of the fault ruptures, how fast, and to what depth... and the elastic properties of the Earth," he said. The Alpine Fault is a geological fault that runs almost the entire length of New Zealand's South Island (c. 480 km) and forms the boundary between the Pacific Plate and the Indo-Australian Plate. Along the Alpine Fault, most areas will experience MM9 shaking, with pockets of MM10. GNS Science sent four of its geologists to Franz Josef to talk about what will happen when the Alpine Fault ruptures. The fault runs diagonally through Franz Josef Township and geologists have recommended a “fault avoidance zone” 100 meters either side to protect buildings. . In between earthquakes, the Alpine Fault is locked. “There are things we can do about that . Photo / Getty Images. The project has now also completed its draft South Island Alpine Fault Earthquake Response (SAFER) framework, which puts into place procedures for when the enormous fault ruptures. Newshub staff. "When the Alpine Fault next ruptures, it will produce seismic waves that propagate out in all directions," Townend said. This study builds upon previous investigations in order to develop a better chronology of large earthquakes generated by ruptures on the Alpine Fault. He says the last one occurred some 295 years ago, meaning there is a 30% chance of a major quake in the next 50 years. Techniques for extracting those signals from the noise recordings have been developed by members of the team and applied successfully to faults in California and Japan. The last major earthquake on the Alpine Fault was in 1717, so we're already a little overdue for one of the biggest earthquakes in New Zealand's modern history. SIGNING UP IS FAST, EASY AND FREE (TAKES LESS THAN A MINUTE AND IT'S A FREE FORUM), CLICK IMAGE FOR VIDEO, MAP & ARTICLE LINKS, All of the clocks in the movie Pulp Fiction are stuck on 4:20, IF YOU ENJOY THIS SITE PLEASE TELL OTHERS ABOUT US…SHARING IS CARING. Dr Caroline Orchiston explains the Alpine Fault and the damage the earthquake will have. When the Alpine Fault next ruptures it is likely to produce an earthquake with a magnitude of around 8. In between earthquakes, the Alpine Fault is locked. That said, from what we do know, there will be a large earthquake on the Alpine fault in the not-too-distant geological future, and it would be no surprise if it happened tomorrow. – Wind and waterproof clothing, sun hats, and strong outdoor shoes. The central and southern parts of the Alpine Fault run for about 400 kilometres up the spine of the South Island, and are about 40 times longer than the fault responsible for the fatal February 2011 earthquake in Christchurch. It has ruptured four times in the last 900 years, resulting in earthquakes of around magnitude 8, and is now considered highly probable to go again in the next 50 years. GNS science said there was a 30 per cent chance of a large earthquake on the Alpine Fault in the next 50 years. From there, the Alpine Fault runs along the western edge of the Southern Alps, before splitting into a set of smaller dextral strike-slip faults north of Arthur’s Pass, known as the Marlborough Fault System. Other problems were more likely to be an issue, such as damage to underground pipes, and major landslides along the South Island’s main highways. An Alpine Fault rupture may trigger landslides and flooding especially on the West Coast which could be cut off for a while and hard to it will be hard to support them. The novelty of this approach is that calculating how different patterns of slip on the fault affected ground shaking at locations of interest throughout the South Island and southern North Island could be done without having to simulate the entire wave propagation process. Your BLOG can not share posts by EMAIL waves that propagate out in all directions, Townend... Paper and large rubbish bags for your emergency Toilet to about 150m the! 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